In a fascinating post on the 4Hoteliers blog, JMBM's Jim Butler shares research from NYU's Bjorn Hanson that shows an uncanny symmetry between U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Hotel Room Demand. Since 1920, with very few exceptions, the two growth rates have mirrored each other.
That is...until the Year 2000. During the last recession, hotel demand dropped like a stone compared to the decline in GDP. It's done the same in this one.
Last time around, the trend boomeranged back rapidly...but began following the GDP trend line again at a decreased level. The question Butler poses is chilling. Will the recovery for hotels replicate the last recovery...or are we in a totally new paradigm with this one?
Either way, the numbers don't look good.
Comments