Bill Geist's Zeitgeist

Just Not Now

The latest wave of COVID research from Longwoods International dropped this morning, appearing to show that Americans are fairly confident that the plague will diminish in the next six months, as almost 9 in 10 have plans to travel by July.

But...just not now. Roughly a third of Americans last week said they are postponing travel as a result of the surge in cases. 58% are changing plans. And, while anecdotal, it certainly bears caution...even among the vaccinated. Terri and I might have known two or three people that came down with COVID each month of the first 20 or so. Since the first of this month, that number has ballooned to over 20 friends, acquaintances and clients, likely due to holiday get togethers.

Here's hoping the top line number isn't just wishful thinking talking. And, if you must, travel and gather safely, y'all.

The Yin and Yang of Travel

Destination Marketing Organizations pursue the visitor economy in a number of different markets. But for our hotel partners, they often view our responsibility in two distinct segments of the week...weekdays and weekends.

Weekdays are filled with corporate business and meetings & conventions. Weekends are when sports tournaments and family group activities fill rooms. And as we have all seen, the pent up demand in leisure travel, after a year and a half of being cooped up, is also filling weekends in this nation's hotels.

But, make no mistake. The most lucrative portion of the week for hotels is often weekdays. Depending on the destination, hotels can often make more on corporate and convention travel than weekend travel...and that's why this new study from the American Hotel & Lodging Association is so troubling. 67% of business travelers now say they will take fewer and shorter trips. Over 50% say they plan to cancel upcoming trips with no plan to reschedule. And, 66% say they will only travel to places they can drive to, unconvinced that air travel is safer. When it comes to Meetings and Conventions, 71% say they will attend fewer events. We were so hopeful for recovery...and that hope is now waning.

The Delta variant, and the remaining Americans that refuse to be vaccinated, is to blame for this. Political posturing is to blame for this. Bad actors on Social Media are to blame for this.

I understand why so many are resistant to getting vaccinated for political reasons or a fairly unwarranted fear of complications. I do.

But, if you knew there was a less than .01% chance of dying when you could rescue someone trapped in a burning building, would you spring to action? I believe you wouldn't hesitate.

There's a less than .01% chance of dying from the VAX, and, by getting a free shot in the arm, you can help save America's travel economy...and millions of jobs of good people who are looking to you for help. Begging for your help.

What's it gonna be?

Please, Don't be Another Train

If this weekend's Super Bowl parties don't result in another debilitating COVID spike over the next two weeks, that light at the end of the tunnel might be called "travel."

Our friends at Destination Analysts and Longwoods International have both been supplying DMOs and the travel industry with insights into how consumers are feeling about getting back out on the road and in the air. And, as we bounced from holiday spike to holiday spike, consumers hung on the safety bar of their personal roller coaster as travel sentiment rose and fell.

But today, as Americans feel more hopeful that the strategy for immunization is becoming more coherent, they also indicate that they are itching to get back out there. According to Destination Analysts' latest weekly study, consumers' openness to travel inspiration (marketing) is at its highest point since the pandemic reared its ugly head. And, today's release of Longwoods' latest research reveals that 81% of us say that we plan to travel in the next six months...up from 65% in mid-January and the highest since last March.

That's the kind of news we all need.

The Psychology of Sticking with an Incumbent

For those of us that vote for candidates we believe will work to enhance our lives, it's a head scratcher when we watch friends and colleagues steadfastly stick with an incumbent when they have repeatedly failed to do just that.

New research provides the answer. And, to channel Duke Tumatoe, "it's not their fault." 

From Fast Company Compass, researchers at John Hopkins have studied babies that randomly pick a block from a room full of identical ones and then ignore all the other blocks. This indicates that we like things because we choose them; not that we choose things because we like them.

Thus, humans are apparently hardwired to double down on choices they've already made, regardless of whether it is the right choice.

Isn't science marvelous?

 

Who Do We Believe

It's not the CDC. It's not State Health Officials. And, it certainly isn't the White House.

In their just-released American Traveler Sentiment Study, Longwoods International finds that trust in those that we should, ostensibly, trust is dropping like a stone. Trust in the CDC has dropped to 45%. And, how wouldn't it...after urging us all to physically distance ourselves but recently shifting gears to say schools should re-open? And trust in the White House Coronavirus Task Force is now at 17%? Why does the media even bother to cover the daily briefings? Nothing better to do?

It's a sad moment indeed when people believe Social Media more than those that have been elected and selected to lead.

Winter is coming.

Mask Chaos

It has been fascinating to witness the pushback by some regarding the wearing of face coverings during this pandemic. No one seemed to have much of a problem with "No Shirt, No Shoes = No Service" over the years. But, asking people to wear a mask in stores has resulted in violence. It's as if this is the biggest affront to liberty facing us in this country (it's not).

Like Longwoods International and Destination Analysts, our friends at H2R are performing regular research into the intent of consumers to resume traveling. And, in their most recent study, Jerry Henry pointed out that the most willing to travel right now are also largely against mask enforcement. But, that most would wear a face covering if required.

It's "Mask Chaos," he said.

Too funny...except, it's not. Not really.

Mask up, y'all.

More Sunlight

This should be interesting. Of all the batshit crazy ideas coming out of the Florida Legislature this year, one bears some further examination: Making Daylight Savings Time permanent year 'round.

Before "Standard Time" there was "Solar Time" (the time based on the position of the sun) to maximize America's agrarian society's output (and compensate for the lack of electricity and lighting). "Standard Time" was created to regulate railroad schedules (at one time, the railroads juggled 300 local time zones). And, then, "Daylight Savings Time" was created to give Americans more daylight for after-work pursuits in the summer.

There are studies that the economy improves and utility costs decrease during Daylight Savings Time, even when considering extraneous factors. Tourism interests say that winter business wouldn't drop as precipitously if the sun didn't set so early. The only rational objection I've heard is from parents not wanting to send their kids to school in the pitch dark. But, of course, we know today that we shouldn't be forcing them awake that early anyway.

Like I said...this should get interesting.

 

Loud = Clueless

Ever notice that the people who argue the hardest and the are the most positive that they are right are often the most uninformed in the room? It's not your imagination.

There is a condition called the "Dunning-Kruger effect" that presents itself in a fascinating way: The less skilled, barely competent or ill-informed one is, the more confident one is that they are actually very good and extremely intelligent.

So says Tom Nichols in a new book entitled "The Death of Expertise." Wanna go deeper? Check out this article by Paul Fanlund in the Capital Times.

And, heaven help us all...

Nocturnal Excellence

New research indicates that the later you crash, the smarter you are.

According to Psychology Today, intelligent people are more likely to be nocturnal than people with lower IQ scores. From being proactive to rebellious and open-minded to anti-establishmentarians, those of us that head to bed after midnight are apparently brighter than those that give up before Fallen does his monologue.

I know a bunch of people that I believe to be whip smart that crash early. Your thoughts on whether this study holds water?

Letting the Weather Forecast Drive Your Marketing

One of my all-time favorite lyrics comes from the Simon & Garfunkel classic "The Only Living Boy in New York"...

"I get the news I need from the weather report."

And, maybe I get the inspiration for my marketing message there, too. New research indicates that buying decisions are increasingly made based upon, not the weather but, the forecast for future weather. Imagine how impactful this could be for nimble destination marketers that could maximize visitation by customizing their message to this weekend's forecast.

As the Weather Company's Paul Walsh muses (as reported by Reveries): “The old paradigm of business and weather was cope and avoid. With technology, the paradigm is now anticipate and exploit.”